Thor Wild‑Bell
Operator. Investor. Explorer.
Quote of the week
“Look where others aren’t.”
- Seth Klarman
MENTAL MODELS (I LIKE)
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Inversion
Start with how this fails, then design so those paths are closed.
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Circle of Competence
Know what you actually know, and stay inside it when downside is real.
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Occam’s Razor
Prefer the simple explanation when it still fits the facts.
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Second-Order Thinking
Effects have effects; the second move often matters most.
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Opportunity Cost
Every yes is a no to something else. Price it.
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Margin of Safety
Build room for being wrong before you need it.
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Mr. Market
Markets have moods; use them, don’t marry them.
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Probabilistic Thinking
Assign odds. Don’t demand certainty.
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Bayes / Updating
Change your mind when the evidence changes.
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Falsification
Prefer beliefs you could prove wrong.
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Hanlon’s Razor
Don’t assume malice when error is enough.
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Map Is Not the Territory
The model is useful and incomplete. Don’t confuse it with reality.
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Incentives
Show me the incentives; I’ll show you the behaviour.
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Skin in the Game
Trust people who share the downside.
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Compounding
Small edges, kept long, beat clever bursts.
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Leverage
Find points where a small input moves a large system.
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Activation Energy
The hard part is often starting. Design for that.
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Feedback Loops
Build systems that tell you the truth early.
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Via Negativa
Often improve by removing what doesn’t work.
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Regret Minimisation
Prefer the choice you’ll respect in ten years.
MAXIMS (I LIKE)
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“I will never give up, and I mean never.” - Elon Musk
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“Don’t tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do and let them surprise you with their results.” - Phil Knight
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“The main thing I stressed was focus.” - Steve Jobs
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“Fix your mistakes as fast as you find them.” - Michael Dell
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“We are fascinated to the point of obsession with the product.” - James Dyson
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“The expectations will never be higher than my own.” - Michael Jordan
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“I like it when people take things to their limit.” - Rick Rubin
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“Imagination rules the world.” - Napoleon Bonaparte
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“Capital allocation is a CEO’s most important job.” - Henry Singleton
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“It’s all about the long term.” - Jeff Bezos
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“Success can only be achieved through repeated failure.” - Soichiro Honda
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“When I face a difficult situation, I think I will win instead of I might lose.” - John D. Rockefeller
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“In business, it is never easy to go against the beliefs and attitudes held by the majority.” - J. Paul Getty
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“Thinking is the hardest work anyone can do, which is probably the reason why we have so few thinkers.” - Henry Ford
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“Tenacity, perseverance, and optimism are traits that have been handed down to me through my family genes.” - Akio Morita
What I'm learning
- Stability in the home is first and foremost.
- Recovery and performance decline fast past 40.
- Simple pleasures beat complex expensive things.
About
I think differently.
My ideas come from vast experience across continents, disciplines, cultures, and people. My career spans investment markets, technology startups, and passion projects, focused on how far I can push the human mind and body.
That includes the Guinness World Record for the fastest stage solo swim around Kauai, and representing Australia in 100 km running.